Stunningly refuting local and national claims that crime in California is out of control (Heritage Foundation, 2025; Hilton, 2026) new 2025 crime numbers released by the state Department of Justice show property crime at its lowest level since reports were first modernized in 1960 (DOJ, 2026). Homicide is also at its lowest level since 1959. These crime declines occurred as the number of Californians incarcerated in state and local facilities remained at the lowest number since 1988 (CDCR, 2026).
Introduction
Findings
- Crime rates declined for a third straight year in 2025, producing the lowest rate of Part I crime in California’s recorded history. Compared to 2024, 2025 showed declines for total Part I crimes (-13%), property crime (-14%), and violent crime (-9%) (Figure 1).
- Recent data extend a decades-long pattern of falling crime rates. In 2025, jurisdictions reported one-third as many crimes per capita than they did in 1990 (DOF, 2026; DOJ, 2026).
- These patterns have persisted amid significant changes in state policy. Crime levels are now 27% lower than in 2011 when the first of several major criminal justice reforms took effect. Since then, the state has realigned its prisons (AB 109, 2011), reduced penalties for low-level drug and property offenses (Prop 47, 2014), legalized marijuana (Prop 64, 2016), and expanded parole opportunities (Prop 57, 2016).
- Contributing to the decline has been a sizable drop in youth involvement in crime, including for serious offenses. Juvenile arrest rates for violent crimes fell 5.6% from 2024 to 2025 and are 76% lower than in 1990 (Figure 2) (DOF, 2026; DOJ, 2026). Though rates are up slightly from pandemic-era lows, youth arrests remain far below their 1990s and 2000s levels.
- Property crime rates continued on the steep decline they have experienced since 2022. For the second straight year, property crime in California hit a historic low.
- Felony retail thefts per capita experienced their third consecutive year of decline. Reported misdemeanor retail theft rates declined 9%. The vast majority of misdemeanor retail theft goes unreported, so reported misdemeanor retail theft statistics can change significantly due to small changes in reporting. Because they represent more serious incidents, felony retail theft statistics are considered to be more reliable indicators of retail theft.
- Despite declines in crime, police staffing levels have remained steady. In 2025, the average sworn officer solved just 12.6 crimes, a 60% decline since 1990 when officers solved an average of 32 crimes (Figure 3)(DOJ, 2026).
- Black and Latino Californians bear the brunt of the state’s overinvestment in policing. In 2025, Black and Latino arrest rates were 3.3 and 1.3 times higher, respectively, than white arrest rates (Figure 4) (DOF, 2026; DOJ, 2026). This disparity has increased in recent years, with the gaps widening by 16% for Black Californians and 24% for Latino Californians since 2018.
- Felony arrests for drug offenses surged in 2025, rising 46% over 2024 levels. The increase was driven by sharply rising rates of drug arrest among Californians over age 30 (Figure 5). This increase coincides with the implementation of Proposition 36, which increased penalties on individuals with repeated low-level drug arrests (Prop 36, 2024).
Conclusion
While crime fell sharply in 2025 to its lowest level ever reliably recorded, arrest strategies have shifted to target people over age 30, and especially over age 40, for drugs. This occurs as law enforcement has moved away from their focus of arresting mainly young people, and as incarcerations in state prisons and local facilities have fallen by 120,000 over the last two decades. Overall, this indicates that past strategies of arresting hundreds of thousands and incarcerating tens of thousands of mainly young people did not prevent (and may even have contributed to) their aging into today’s older adults whose crime and drug problems have now become the focus of law enforcement.
The trends also indicate California crime is not likely to increase in the future as younger generations, who show low arrest and incarceration levels, age. Long-term trends indicated by data from 2025 and other recent years are very encouraging. They indicate a continued need to focus on successful reforms that have reduced the number of people under correctional control while ushering in an era of safety.
References
Assembly Bill 109 (AB 109). (2011). https://leginfo.legislature.ca….
California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR). (2026). Data and research. At: https://www.cdcr.ca.gov/resear….
California Department of Justice (DOJ). (2026). Open Justice, Crime & Clearances. At: https://openjustice.doj.ca.gov….
California Department of Finance (DOF). (2026). Demographic Research Unit. Estimates. At: https://dof.ca.gov/forecasting….
Heritage Foundation. (2025). California’s crime crisis: Voters took action, Newsom took his football and went home. At: https://www.heritage.org/crime….
Hilton, Steve. (2026). Steve Hilton’s plan to expand prison capacity and fight crime. At: https://stevehiltonforgovernor….
Proposition 36. (2024). At: https://vig.cdn.sos.ca.gov/202….
Proposition 47. (2014). At: https://vig.cdn.sos.ca.gov/201….
Proposition 57. (2016). At: https://courts.ca.gov/sites/de….
Proposition 64. (2016). At: https://vig.cdn.sos.ca.gov/201….
Please note: Jurisdictions submit their data to the official state or nationwide databases maintained by appointed governmental bodies. While every effort is made to review data for accuracy and to correct information upon revision, CJCJ cannot be responsible for data reporting errors made at the county, state, or national level.
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